Harley Davidson Stock Performance

HOG Stock  USD 19.56  0.24  1.21%   
The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.3, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform. At this point, Harley Davidson has a negative expected return of -0.4%. Please make sure to check out Harley Davidson's skewness, as well as the relationship between the rate of daily change and period momentum indicator , to decide if Harley Davidson performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Harley Davidson has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unsteady performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(1.19)
Five Day Return
(1.61)
Year To Date Return
(5.23)
Ten Year Return
(50.48)
All Time Return
5.6 K
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0368
Payout Ratio
0.1426
Last Split Factor
2:1
Forward Dividend Rate
0.72
Dividend Date
2025-12-22
1
Disposition of 4136 shares by Do Charles of Harley Davidson at 25.51 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/07/2025
2
Insider Trading
11/10/2025
3
How Investors Are Reacting To Harley-Davidson Consolidating Commercial Leadership Under Its CFO
12/08/2025
 
Harley Davidson dividend paid on 22nd of December 2025
12/22/2025
4
Acquisition by Luke Mansfield of 1232 shares of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3
01/23/2026
5
Harley-Davidson Sets New 12-Month Low Should You Sell
01/27/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.6 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-383.3 M

Harley Davidson Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,516  in Harley Davidson on November 4, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (560.00) from holding Harley Davidson or give up 22.26% of portfolio value over 90 days. Harley Davidson is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.7504% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 15% of stocks are less volatile than Harley, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Harley Davidson is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.32 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.23 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.11 per unit of volatility.

Harley Davidson Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Harley Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 19.56 90 days 19.56 
about 91.61
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Harley Davidson to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 91.61 (This Harley Davidson probability density function shows the probability of Harley Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Harley Davidson will likely underperform. Additionally Harley Davidson has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Harley Davidson Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Harley Davidson

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harley Davidson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.8119.5621.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.2721.0222.77
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
16.8418.5920.34
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.1226.5029.42
Details

Harley Davidson Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Harley Davidson is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Harley Davidson's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Harley Davidson, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Harley Davidson within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.55
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.30
σ
Overall volatility
2.11
Ir
Information ratio -0.29

Harley Davidson Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Harley Davidson for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Harley Davidson can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Harley Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 22nd of December 2025 Harley Davidson paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: UBS Initiates Rush Enterprises at Neutral, 70 Price Target - marketscreener.com

Harley Davidson Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Harley Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Harley Davidson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harley Davidson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding132.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.6 B

Harley Davidson Fundamentals Growth

Harley Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Harley Davidson, and Harley Davidson fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Harley Stock performance.

About Harley Davidson Performance

By analyzing Harley Davidson's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Harley Davidson's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Harley Davidson has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Harley Davidson has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 72.53  41.62 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Capital Employed 0.06  0.05 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Equity 0.17  0.26 

Things to note about Harley Davidson performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Harley Davidson for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Harley Davidson help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Harley Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 22nd of December 2025 Harley Davidson paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: UBS Initiates Rush Enterprises at Neutral, 70 Price Target - marketscreener.com
Evaluating Harley Davidson's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Harley Davidson's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Harley Davidson's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Harley Davidson's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Harley Davidson's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Harley Davidson's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Harley Davidson's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Harley Davidson's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Harley Davidson's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Harley Davidson's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Harley Davidson's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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